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Counties overall have been identified as "pivot counties" in the United States.

206

Top 10 Battleground Counties During 2020 Election

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Source: Ballotpedia

2024?

This year is election year, with a rematch between President Biden and former President Trump. What does this mean come November?

New Mexico - Hidalgo County - Shifted by 15.1 percentage points, towards Trump.

Arkansas - Woodruff County - Shifted by 27.8 percentage points, towards Trump.

North Carolina - Robeson County - Shifted 18.6 percentage points, towards Trump.

North Dakota - Benson County. - Shifted 13.9 percentage points, towards Trump.

Rhode Island - Kent County. - Shifted 7.6 percentage points, towards Biden.

New York - Warren County - Shifted by .2 points, towards Trump.

Delaware - Kent County - Shifted by 4.1 percentage points, towards Biden.

South Dakota - Ziebach County - Shifted by 8.5 percentage points, towards Biden.

Iowa - Chickasaw County - Shifted by 31.3 percentage points, towards Trump.

New York - Saratoga County - Shifted by 5.4 percentage points, towards Biden.

Source: GIS Geography

NEW MEXICO

- County: Hidalgo- Shift: Retained- Population Size: 4,178- 2012: D+5.0- 2016: R+6.7- 2020: R+15.1Source: Ballotpedia

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Source: GIS Geography

SOUTH DAKOTA

- County: Ziebach- Shift: Boomerang- Population Size: 2,413- 2012: D+16.4- 2016: R+2.0- 2020: D+8.5Source: Ballotpedia

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NORTH DAKOTA

Source: GIS Geography

- County: Benson- Shift: Retained- Population Size: 5,964- 2012: D+17.01- 2016: R+4.3- 2020: R+13.9Source: Ballotpedia

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IOWA

Source: GIS Geography

- County: Chickasaw- Shift: Retained- Population Size: 12,012- 2012: D+11.1- 2016: R+22.9- 2020: R+31.3Source: Ballotpedia

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ARKANSAS

Source: GIS Geography

- County: Woodruff- Shift: Retained- Population Size: 6,269- 2012: D+4.2- 2016: R+8.9- 2020: R+27.8Source: Ballotpedia

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NORTH CAROLINA

Source: GIS Geography

- County: Robeson- Shift: Retained- Population Size: 116,530- 2012: D+17.4- 2016: R+4.3- 2020: R+18.6Source: Ballotpedia

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DELAWARE

- County: Kent- Shift: Boomerang- Population Size: 181,851- 2012: D+4.9- 2016: R+4.9- 2020: D+4.1Source: Ballotpedia

Source: GIS Geography

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RHODE ISLAND

Source: GIS Geography

- County: Kent- Shift: Boomerang- Population Size: 170,363- 2012: D+17.7- 2016: R+0.7- 2020: D+7.6Source: Ballotpedia

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NEW YORK

Source: GIS Geography

- County(s): Saratoga & Warren- Population Size: 235,509 & 65,737- Saratoga (Boomerang)-2012: D+2.4-2016: R+3.2-2020: D+5.4- Warren (Retained)-2012: D+2.3-2016: R+8.5-2020: R+0.2Source: Ballotpedia

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99:08:26:45

Days

Election Day is November 5, 2024. So how does this effect the upcoming election?

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- These counties will be major players in the rematch of President Biden and Former President Trump this November.- A potential predictor of how counties will vote depends on the type of speech that is normalized in the county/state. - So beware of the types of political messaging you come across between candidates, organizations and the public between now and November 5th.

Former President Trump giving a speech during a campaign rally in Rio Rancho, New Mexico. September 16, 2019. Source: NBC News.

Current President Biden speaking Wilmington, Delaware during the tallying of election outcomes. November 4, 2020. Source: ABC News.

- Pivot counties are also commonly called "swing counties" just like when you hear about swing states. - Pivot counties are defined as: counties that were identified to have voted for Obama (D) in 2008 and 2012, but than pivoted by voting for Donald Trump (R) in 2016.- There are two types of pivot counties:1. Boomerang Counties: refers to when a county flipped from red to blue in the 2020 election (ex. from Trump to Biden). 25/206 pivot counties were boomerang counties.2. Retained Counties: refers to when a county stayed with its former party affliation (ex. remained for Trump). 181/206 pivot counties were retained counties.

What is a Pivot County?