So, Is it profitable to focus on our 1st Serve % versus increasing the quality and potentially lower it?
Top 100 average 1st Serve % is 62.57.
Only 3 players are above average in the Top 10
While 1st Serve % and Service Games Won don't show a high correlation
Correlations - Top 100
Service Games Won - 1st Serve %
Service Games Won - 1st Serve Points %
When 1st Serve Points % increases, the Service Games Won also does
Quick Look at the Top 10
| I Swiatek | A Sabalenka | C Gauff | E Rybakina | J Pegula | O Jabeur | M Vondrousova | M Sakkari | K Muchova | B Krejcikova | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1ST SERVE % | 65.5 | 61 | 60.5 | 56.8 | 58.4 | 54.6 | 64 | 59.5 | 63.1 | 60 |
| 1ST SERVE POINTS % | 70 | 72.9 | 68 | 73.6 | 66.1 | 67.9 | 65.7 | 67.3 | 66.3 | 69.1 |
| SERVICE GAMES WON | 80.4 | 80.8 | 73.4 | 78.9 | 72.3 | 67.4 | 70.7 | 73 | 74.4 | 73.6 |
1st Serve % vs 1st Serve Points %
Does 1st Serve % actually leads to a higher % of Service Games Won?
1ST SERVE %
62.36 %
1ST SERVE POINTS %
64.28 %
SERVICE GAMES WON
66.85 %
| % | |
|---|---|
| 1ST SERVE % | 62.36 % |
| 1ST SERVE POINTS % | 64.28 % |
| SERVICE GAMES WON | 66.85 % |
Uncovering the myth
We have heard coaches - and players - say many times that 'the key is to make 1st serves'. But is this true?
Let's have a look at the stats of the top 100 and Top 10 to understand what a good serve performance would be.
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Conclusion
- Having a high 1st Serve % is not as valuable as we probably think. Correlation with winning Service Games is not high at top level.
- Most of Top 10 don't have a higher 1st Serve % than average Top 100.
- Players who hold more serves don't have a higher 1st Serve %.
- High 1st Serve Points % leads to higher Service Games Won %.
Overall of the Top 100
1st Serve % - The 'Useless' Stat?
