General TX - Texas Resiliency
JLL Creative
Created on February 6, 2023
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Transcript
Texas Resiliency
DFW Airport
S. Fort Worth
Great SW
S. Dallas
S. Stemmons
NW. Dallas
E. Dallas
NE. Dallas
Click to view city stats
Texas job growth outpaces the U.S.
Corporate expansion favors Texas
Texas offers low cost of living
Texas triangle megaregion drives growth
Texas industrial region gateway to trade
San Antonio
Click
DFW
to view the slides
Austin
Houston
DFW Airport
S. Fort Worth
Great SW
S. Dallas
S. Stemmons
NW. Dallas
E. Dallas
NE. Dallas
Texas Resiliency
Click to view city stats
Texas job growth outpaces the U.S.
Corporate expansion favors texas
Texas offers low cost of living
Texas triangle megaregion drives growth
Texas industrial region gateway to trade
San Antonio
Click
to view the slides
DFW
Austin
Houston
Texas job growth consistently outpaces the U.S.
United States 4,503,000 (3.0%)
Source: JLL Research, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, 12-month trailing totals (December 2022)
*Jobs data is for all of 2022
Corporate site selection and expansion activity favors Texas markets
Source: JLL Research, Ytexas.com, Site Selection Magazine Note: Corporate relocations, expansions, involved an investment of at least $1 million, create 20+ new jobs or add 20,000+ s.f. of new space
Major Texas population centers offer a low cost of living and high quality of life
Source: JLL Research, Greater Houston Partnership, C2ER Cost of Living Index Note: Based on a survey of 262 urban areas, released in October 2022
Texas Triangle megaregion drives state’s exponential growth
million people
trillion combined GDP
million total regional employment
moved to state for 2nd year in a row (2022 U-Haul Growth Index)
20.5
$1.47
10.1
#1
Texas industrial markets are a gateway of global trade
Dallas-Fort Worth and Houston were Top 5 markets in the U.S. for 2022 industrial net absorption.
Tenant demand
More than 108 million s.f. of new supply is underway across Texas’ four major metros.
New supply
Port Houston reached nearly four million TEUs in 2022, a 14% growth in container volume year-over-year.
Economic growth
Austin is a rapidly growing logistics and distribution market, driven by advanced manufacturing and tech.
Emerging hub
Austin has led major markets in employment growth through periods of national unemployment rate recovery
Austin has a critical mass of young, vibrant, and educated talent, providing a competitive workforce to attract new and expanding businesses
Median Age
34.7
Bachelor’s Degree or higher
46%
4-year colleges within 200 miles
86
A diversified industry base has reinforced Austin’s resiliency in times of economic crisis, historically seeing a shorter period of contraction compared to other cities.
Trade, transportation, and utilities
16%
Education and health services
12%
Trade, transportation, and utilities
21%
Government
14%
Financialactivities
6%
Manufacturing
6%
Otherservices
4%
Leisure and hospitality
11%
Mining, logging, and construction
6%
Information
4%
Tech industries represent 17% of jobs in Austin, compared to 9% nationally
Austin has exceeded every other major city in the U.S, by way of population and employment growth in the period since 2010, given its strong fundamentals
Looking ahead, Austin ranks number 1 among investors for plans to increase investment over the next five years
of surveyed investors plan to increase their Austin exposure
36%
The city of Austin has seen significant corporate growth and major capital commitments in the last several years, with the future economic impact of those yet to be fully realized
Major Capital Commitments
Direct Jobs
10,000+
Investment
$10 + Billion
Direct Jobs
500+
Investment
$17+ Billion
Direct Jobs
2,000+
Investment
$1+ Billion
Dallas-Fort Worth (DFW) has grown faster than all other major metros, and growth is projected to continue
DFW’s percentage of job gains are at the top of the major markets despite its smaller size compared to LA and NYC
234.7 | 5.9%
215.7 | 3.5%
344.4 | 3.6%
12-month job gains to November 2022
Dallas-Fort Worth
Los Angeles
New York
DFW’s balanced economy is positioned to weather declines facing select sectors
People in-migrating to DFW from coastal cities continues to drive population growth
DFW leads the nation in investment transaction volume since 2020, with New York and LA 2nd and 3rd
Dallas class A office rents have shown consistent growth since 2011 reaching a new highwater mark in 2022 of +$70/PSF
Dallas-Fort Worth sales volume ($m)
$36,344
DFW’s diverse economy and consistent job growth have provided resilience during previous downturns. In prior downturns, DFW has recovered faster than most of the larger metros
Demand for Industrial space has pushed DFW’s development pipeline over 62M SF making it the largest pipeline in the country
YoY (TTM)
16.6%
Dallas-Fort Worth supply of Industrial under development (Millions of s.f.)
61.6
Class A rent growth 2011-2020
58.7%
Covid-19 pandemic-total rent
7.4%
DFW leads the nation in investment transaction volume since 2020, with New York and LA 2nd and 3rd
Dallas class A office rents have shown consistent growth since 2011 reaching a new highwater mark in 2022 of +$70/PSF
Dallas-Fort Worth sales volume ($m)
$36,344
DFW’s diverse economy and consistent job growth have provided resilience during previous downturns. In prior downturns, DFW has recovered faster than most of the larger metros
Demand for Industrial space has pushed DFW’s development pipeline over 62M SF making it the largest pipeline in the country
YoY (TTM)
16.6%
Dallas-Fort Worth supply of Industrial under development (Millions of s.f.)
61.6
Class A rent growth 2011-2020
58.7%
Covid-19 pandemic-total rent
7.4%
Houston is one of the most diverse metros in the U.S., and as a minority-majority city, Hispanics are its largest ethnic group
Houston’s economy fully recovered from pandemic losses last May, and the region added 179,000 overall jobs in 2022
104.8%
Houston:
Houston’s robust workforce and business-friendly environment have driven a 20% increase in job growth, higher than the national average
Despite the pandemic, Houston’s population continues to climb steadily due to strong natural and in-migration trends
Pandemic job losses recovered
Port Houston continues its record-breaking growth and is a major economic engine for the entire state of Texas
Houston was the only Texas metro to land on the U.S. life sciences cluster rankings due to its impressive base of talent and research institutions
The Bayou City ranks No. 14 out of 80 cities for top U.S. real estate markets as strong population and job growth attract investors to Houston.
The life sciences sector has seen marked employment growth, advancing greater Houston’s position as an emerging market
Top imports
- Hardware and construction materials
- Machinery, appliances and electronics
- Food and drink
Top exports
- Resins and plastics
- Chemicals and minerals
- Automotive
1: Boston 2: SF Bay Area 3: San Diego 4: Greater DC & Baltimore 5: Philadelphia 6: Raleigh/Durham 7: New Jersey 8: New York City 9: Seattle 10: Salt Lake City 11: Pittsburgh 12: Minneapolis–St. Paul 13: Houston 14: Chicago 15: Denver-Boulder
San Antonio ranked as the fastest growing city in numerical population growth between 2020 and 2021 and is expected to welcome 1 million new residents by 2040.
The city is a magnet for talent, being home to several institutions of higher education and the nations #1 cybersecurity program.
Rich culture supports a flourishing hospitality industry, with an economic impact of $16.2B, rebounding 93% from pre-pandemic levels.
San Antonio benefits from a significant military presence, which is a major driver of the local economy and often countercyclical to economic downturns.
More affordable than the national averages
San Antonio’s average real estate costs across property types are more affordable than national averages, attracting commercial occupiers and residents to the city.
27%
Industrial
30%
Office
29%
Single-family
29%
Multi-housing
16
Area colleges and universities
160,000
Students