Forecast accuracy

Forecast accuracy

How accurate are the forecasts?

Accuracy

Forecasts are most accurate until 3-month-off. After that, the average shows mostly underforecasting.

RST

DDL

XPL

OVERFORECAST

RST tends to overforecast by a little bit.

UNDERFORECAST

DDL tends to underforecast. Out of 21 forecasts, 16 are too low.

OVERFORECAST

XPL tends to overforecast. The analysis shows big differences, up to 205%.

Underforecasting can be attributed to new contracts.

DDL does not calculate a different forecast for each month.

There does not seem to be a set way to calculate forecasts.

What can we learn?

Forecasting will never be an exact science. Therefore differences, big or small, are to be expected. Differences up to 205% are found in 2021. Improvement can for instance be made by coming up with one specific way to calculate forecasts. Another way is to use specialised software, but that of course has its downsides (cost, time).Key is to regularly visit back old numbers and learn from these.

TOTALMayJuneJulyAugustSeptemberOctober1-month-off5%-1%-9%10%10%9%2-month-off-12%-27%14%37%27%3-month-off-33%-8%14%49%4-month-off-18%-24%17%5-month-off-27%-23%6-month-off-27%

RSTJuneJulyAugustSeptemberOctoberNovember1-month-off+5%+9%-3%+4%+8%+16%2-month-off+0.0043%-24%+16%+41%+37%3-month-off-31%-24%+15%+72%4-month-off-25%-38%+29%5-month-off-45%-29%6-month-off-38%

DDLJuneJulyAugustSeptemberOctoberNovember1-month-off-8%-27%-34%-5%+39%-83%2-month-off-29%-31%-22%+40%-5%3-month-off-35%-18%+15%-4%4-month-off-23%+21%-22%5-month-off+16%-18%6-month-off-21%

XPLJuneJulyAugustSeptemberOctoberNovember1-month-off+21%-2%+12%+108%-15%+5%2-month-off-27%-49%+109%-4%+45%3-month-off-43%+205%+2%+18%4-month-off+62%-12%+18%5-month-off+18%-7%6-month-off+26%