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A SAFE OPERATING SPACE FOR HUMANITY

Johan Rockström et al

Creatividad y empoderamiento con impacto social

Grupo 1 : IN - Filtrados


Betina Campos Vence
Tomas Robles Castaño
Valentina Pinto Cardenas
Valentina Garavito Arévalo
Mery Iovanna Peña Fontecha
Pablo Miguel Sanabria Valencia
María Angélica Veloza Moncada

Index

01. Introduction

02. Planetary boundaries

03. Climate change

04. Rate of biodiversity loss

05. Nitrogen & Fosforous cycles

06. Delicate balance

intro

HOLOCENE

Planet´s environment has been unusually stable for the past 10.000 years.


  • Regular temperatures

  • Freshwater availability

  • Biogeochemical flows

ANTHROPOCENE

Since the industrial revolution, human actions have become the main driver of global environmental change.


  • Rapidly growing reliance on fossil fuels

  • Industrialized forms of agriculture

INTRODUCTION

Illustration 1: Holocene Period

Illustration 2: Industrial Revolution

Quote

"Identifying and quantifying planetary boundaries that must not be transgressed could help prevent human activities from causing unnaceptable environmental change."

Johan Rockstrom and colleagues

PLANETARY BOUNDARIES

Illustration 3: Planetary Boundaries

Quemical pollution

Concentration of persistant organic pollutants, plastics, endocrine disrupters, heavy metals and nuclear waste
Not yet quantified

Atmospheric aerosol loading

Overall particulate concentration in the atmosphere

Not yet quantified

Change in land use
% of global land cover converted to cropland

Proposed boundary: 15
Current state: 11.7
Pre - industrial value: LOW

Global freshwater use
Consumption of freshwater by humans

Proposed boundary: 4.000
Current state: 2.600
Pre - industrial value: 415

Stratospheric ozone depletion

Concentration of ozone

Proposed boundary: 276
Current state: 283
Pre - industrial value: 290

Ocean acidification

Global mean saturation state of aragonite in surface sea water
Proposed boundary: 2.75
Current state: 2.90
Pre - industrial value: 3.44

PLANETARY BOUNDARIES

These boundaries define the safe operating space for humanity with respect to the Earth system and are associated with the planet´s biophysical subsystems or processes.

Illustration 4: Planetary boundaries

01

CLIMATE CHANGE

Planetary Boundaries

CLIMATE CHANGE

Atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration

Change in radiative forcing

Planetary Boundaries

350

Proposed boundary

387

Current Status

280

Pre - industrial value

1

Proposed boundary

1.5

Current Status

0

Pre - industrial value

1

2

Illustration 5: Climate change

3

Loss of major ice sheets

Accelerated sea - level rise

Abrupt shifts in forest and agricultural systems

Significantly underestimate the severity of long - term climate change for a given concentration of greenhouse gases.


Doubling in atmospheric CO2 concentration will lead to a global temperature rise of:

2 - 4.5 C

4 - 8 C

Stability of polar ice sheets


The planet was largely ice - free until CO2 concentrations fell below 450 p.p.m.v



Evidence of Earth´s subsystems already moving outside their stable Holocene state.


  • Rapid retreat of summer sea ice in Artic ocean
  • Retreat of mountain glaciers
  • The loss of mass from the ice sheets
  • Accelerating rates of sea level rise

02

RATE OF BIODIVERSITY LOSS

Planetary Boundaries

RATE OF BIODIVERSITY LOSS

Extinction rate

(number of species per million species per year)

Planetary Boundaries

10

Proposed boundary

>100

Current Status

Rate of extinction of species is estimated to be 100 to 1000 times more that what could be considered natural

0.1 - 1

Pre - industrial value

*More research is required to pin down this boundary with greater certainty.

30%

of all mammal, bird and amphibian species will be threatened with extinction this century.

Up to

Illustration 6: Rate of biodiversity loss

Changes in frequency, duration or magnitude of wildfires and similar disturbances

Changes in land use exert the most significant effect


  • Agriculture
  • Urban areas

Introduction of new species into land and freshwater environments

03

NITROGEN & FOSFOROUS CYCLES

Planetary Boundaries

NITROGEN & PHOSPHORUS CYCLES

Amount of N2 removed from the atmosphere for human use

Quantity of P flowing into the oceans

Planetary Boundaries

35

Proposed boundary

121

Current Status

0

Pre - industrial value

11

Proposed boundary

8.5 - 9.5

Current Status

-1

Pre - industrial value

Illustration 7: Nitrogen and phosphorus cycles

1

Anthropogenic distortion of the nitrogen cycle and phosphorous flows has shifted the state of lake systems from clear to turbid water.

Nitrous oxide is one of the most important non - CO2 greenhouse gases and directly inreases radiative forcing.

Records of Earth history show that large - scale ocean anoxic events occur when critical threslholds of phosphorous inflow to the oceas are crossed.

Major cause:

Modern agriculture


The manufacture of fertilizer for food production and the cultivation of leguminous crops convert 120 million tonnes of N2 fron the atmosphere per year into radioactive forms.

It is more than the combined effects from all Earth´s terrestrial processes.

3 Branches of scientific inquiry

The scale of human action in relation to the capacity of earth to sustain it.

BRANCH

01

The work on understanding essential Earth processes including human actions.

BRANCH

02

Research into resilience.

BRANCH

03

DELICATE BALANCE

Quote

"The evidence so far suggests that, as long as the thresholds are not crossed, humanity has the freedom to pursue long- term social and economic development."

Johan Rockstrom and colleagues

Argumento crìtico

  • First boundaries are being established and general awareness is being established.


  • Even though the paper is well structured, there is still a lack of information and evidence on the proposed boundaries.

GRACIAS

Referencias

Rockström, Johan, et al. "A safe operating space for humanity." Nature 461.7263 (2009): 472.